Thursday, July 09, 2009

More Exxon shenanigans

Hmm...so much for Exxon giving up their funding of sceptic groups. A quick glance at the groups linked from that page shows that they do indeed feature the standard septic nonsense, I found something by Baliunas very quickly (and no, it wasn't about astronomy, where her opinions might possibly be worth something).

This news rather undermines the credibility of the EGU officials who (in the CL division meeting at the recent EGU meeting) repeatedly referred to Exxon's bad behaviour as a purely historical phenomenon and were very adamant that we should not judge Exxon on their record but on their supposed pledge to be more honest in future. I wonder if this news will force a rethink?


Labels: ,

[jules' pics] 7/08/2009 09:27:00 PM


lotus flower, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

Correction.
Engakuji is huge and mostly monochrome.

woo hoo...the lotus are coming!



--
Posted By jules to jules' pics at 7/08/2009 09:27:00 PM

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

Spend for the planet!

You know how that old "reduce, reuse, recycle" slogan of the environmental movement is embarrassingly inconvenient for conventional economic growth?

Well, Japan has recently solved this conundrum with a truly brilliant idea. They have miraculously turned grotesque over-consumption into an environmental act by creating the "eco-point"! Each "Eco-point" is worth about 1¥ (which you can use for yet more consumption), and you get awarded more points for buying larger, more power-hungry appliances. The largest flat-screen plasma TVs, with a power consumption of about 5 times greater than a typical old-style CRT model, get the max 36,000¥-worth of points. Buying larger air-conditioners and refrigerators will save the planet too! Why didn't Al Gore think of it sooner? The "eco-point" greenwash site can be found here, but it seems a bit knackered at the moment.

Coming next: eco-coal, which neutralises its CO2 emissions by prepending the "eco" prefix to ordinary coal.

Labels: , , , ,

[jules' pics] 7/07/2009 08:40:00 PM


squiggle, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

A bit like in the UK, where it is rare to find the fluffy red squiggle, and the American import is more common, Japan's own fluffy squiggle is much less common that this one, who, I have been told, was developed in Taiwan...



--
Posted By jules to jules' pics at 7/07/2009 08:40:00 PM

Tuesday, July 07, 2009

[jules' pics] 7/06/2009 09:09:00 PM


Engagkuji sanmon, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

Engagkuji is the second of the top five zen temples in Kamakura. Don't know how these lists are worked out, but they seem to be invented for most things you might go and visit in Japan. It starts to get a little mind bending when you find yourself visiting the third of the top ten outside the top five somethings. Anway, Engagkuji is huge and monochrome.



--
Posted By jules to jules' pics at 7/06/2009 09:09:00 PM

Monday, July 06, 2009

Who named the Maunder Minimum?

Jack Eddy died recently. Numerous articles and obituaries have credited him with discovering, and christening as "the Maunder Minimum" the period 1645-1715 when virtually no sunspots were seen (here is Nature, Telegraph, Wikipedia). The conventional wisdom seems to be that the historical sunspot data was vaguely known but not widely accepted, until he came along, proved it really happened and coined the name "Maunder Minimum" in his 1976 paper. But is this really true? One of my sources suggested recently that there may be more to this story that meets the eye. He was an active researcher in this area at the time (and remains so) and says he remembers the term as being in widespread use prior to that paper. He even used the term himself in 1977 as if it were a well known expression. So I did a bit of investigation.

Let's look first at the conventional wisdom. Eg from the Telegraph's obit:

"While many contemporary scientists were sceptical about the reliability of these observations, Eddy reinvestigated sunspots in the light of Spörer's and Maunder's work, and concluded that every two centuries or so there was an interruption to the 11-year cycle. He christened the period 1645-1715 "the Maunder Minimum". "

And Wikipedia:

"he identified a 70-year period from 1645 to 1715 as a time when solar activity all but stopped. [...] which he called the Maunder Minimum"

(the MM page also repeatedly credits him with its discovery)

Now, Eddy himself certainly acknowledged (in an interview with Spencer Weart) that other scientists (specifically Maunder and Spörer) had known about the sunspot data, but argued that "in science the proper credit for something goes not necessarily to the first person who thinks of it, or writes about it but to the one who can convince his colleagues and the doubting world that it's true". However, he very specifically claims the name as his own:

"I also, deliberately chose the title of the paper in Science, calling it simply the "The Maunder Minimum." I knew nobody would know what that was."

I was therefore rather surprised to find that a simple google search finds the term "Maunder Minimum" used no fewer than three times in the Introduction to a conference proceedings, dating from August 1975 - almost a full year before the famous Science paper appeared. Indeed, the author of this article (E. N. Parker) refers precisely to the 1645-1715 interval as "the 70 year minimum (sometimes called the Maunder Minimum)" without any attribution or other hint that this might have been a recent neologism. He also refers to coronal and auroral observations which back up the sunspot evidence for anomalous solar behaviour at this time. Eddy was not at this meeting but a colleague of his from NCAR (Gilman) did attend and even has a brief comment, following the Introduction, which refers to some of his work with Eddy concerning the sun's rotation rate at around that same period. There are no formal references to any work by Eddy anywhere in the entire conference proceedings that I can find.

It gets curiouser. In the same interview with Weart, Eddy specifically credits Gene Parker with introducing him to Maunder's work - this is the very same E. (Eugene) N. Parker who gave that introductory presentation in 1975 and talked about "the 70 year minimum (sometimes called the Maunder Minimum)". Contrary to Eddy's claim, I'm sure that Parker, and all the other scientists at that conference, would have known exactly what "The Maunder Minimum" referred to when Eddy's paper appeared!

None of this is intended to belittle Eddy's contribution of linking the sunspots to other data and putting it all on a firmer footing. But it seems clear that the basic phenomenon - and the name - was fairly well known (at least in the relevant research community) prior to his paper. Perhaps the story has grown a little during the numerous retellings on the after-dinner circuit he seems to have enjoyed. I think it may be time for a bit of Wikipedia editing...

I haven't found an earlier ref than 1975 to the "Maunder Minimum", but I am equipped with nothing more than google, so maybe someone else can do better...(I did see a dodgy ref in 1968 in German but it seems to be a typo).

Update 7/07/09

I hadn't bothered to click on it as I has assumed it must post-date the famous 1976 paper, but in fact this paper by Eddy, Gilman and Trotter "Solar rotation during the Maunder Minimum" predates the famous Science paper by several months! Dated Jan 1976 (only submitted Dec 1975 - how's that for a fast turnaround) it refers to Eddy 1976 as being in press.

It is also notable that in the 1976 paper, Eddy specifically christens the Spörer minimum (1460-1550) with the phrases "The earlier minimum, which we may call the Spörer minimum" and "which I have called the Spörer minimum". It is pretty clear that he named the Spörer minimum, and this contrasts strongly with the manner in which he refers to the Maunder minimum.

Labels:

Friday, July 03, 2009

Times in nonsense hype shocker

Bryan took issue with my last post on heatwaves, but I'm basically unrepentant (as my replies there show).

Here's another example of unreasonable hype from today's Times:
"Thousands of extra deaths are likely if the heat persists throughout the summer, experts say. And heat-related deaths will continue to rise in future years if climate-change predictions prove to be accurate."
Of course it's complete bollocks. Heat-related deaths have actually fallen over the last few decades, as I pointed out not so long ago. If the summer is as hot as the "devastating" 2003 heatwave then I confidently predict that the number of heat-related deaths will be lower than in that year. In fact, I confidently predict that the number of heat-related deaths will be lower than any estimate based on historical data would give. It is clear from a cursory analysis of the data that the population is adapting to warmer temperatures at least as rapidly as the temperatures are rising.

I'm sure no researcher would actually have been stupid enough to lie and say that heat-related deaths have been increasing. They merely encouraged the hype, and you can be sure that none of them will make any effort to correct falsehoods like this. I don't blame the reporter who merely joined the dots in an entirely predictable and understandable manner: (fact 1)heat kills - (fact 2)temperatures have been rising - (fact 3)2003 was the hottest summer on record and 2000 people died - (fact 4)global warming means we will have even hotter summers in future -> (false deduction)deaths are rising and will continue to rise. He could hardly be expected to think that the researchers were deliberately misleading him. Maybe if someone pointed out that twice as many people died due to the rather less hot summer of 1976 he might pause for thought...but I'm not holding my breath.

Bah humbug. Of course I may just be hot and bothered because of the temperatures here :-)

Labels: , ,

[jules' pics] 7/02/2009 10:44:00 PM

Kamakura, these days a peaceful retreat from Tokyo, endured a great deal of murder (tribal warfare) back when it was the capital of Japan. Jojuin marks the "mountain" pass that was the westward guarded entrance to the town, so I expect it saw its fair share. Nowadays it has alleys of ... yes ... ajisai (sigh) running up the steep sides of the hill. The temple, itself, however, has a lovely little garden including some lillies of a more understated nature than the weed variety.



--
Posted By jules to jules' pics at 7/02/2009 10:44:00 PM

Thursday, July 02, 2009

OMG it's summer!!!111!!!!ELEVENTY!!!1111!!

Apparently some vague signs of summer have been spotted back in Blighty so everyone has flown into a panic. Summer hasn't been seen there since about...ooh, last August or so. So it's not surprising that they are worried and don't know how to cope. They are now in an "Amber Heatwave" situation in the south east, because the temperature may reach....32C max and 18C overnight min (it's nothing like that warm over most of the country). Genuine question: do they have a "Blue cold snap" warning in winter which also "requires social and healthcare services to target specific actions at high-risk groups"?

It is interesting to see the emphasis on overnight min as well as the more exciting daily max. It's still rainy season here, so our max temperatures are reasonably cool. However, we probably won't see much below 20C overnight until mid-October or thereabouts. Here's the latest weather forecast, which I hope is self-explanatory despite the language:

The temperature values don't tell the whole story, as it is also phenomenally humid here, making it feel much worse.

Further south in Okinawa, summer is still some way off, but it's a good bit hotter already:


Okinawa, of course, is famed for the extraordinary longevity of its oldies - high even by Japanese standards.

Meanwhile, mt is "enjoying" 40C plus. There are certainly places in the world where a few more degrees of warming would not be welcome. The UK is not one of them.

Labels: , ,

[jules' pics] 7/02/2009 12:39:00 AM


flower sex, originally uploaded by julesberry2001.

Another plain weed, and the common ole buppyfly that's the size of a swallow. You might need to look at the larger size image to see the pollen on the butterfly's wings that is getting rubbed into all the right places.

[picture taken near our house in Kamakura]



--
Posted By jules to jules' pics at 7/02/2009 12:39:00 AM